Why RAM and SSD Prices Are Still Rising in 2026: Q3 Recap and Q4 Outlook for Server Buyers

Server memory prices have now risen for four consecutive quarters. In February we wrote that no meaningful relief was likely before 2027. Eight months later, that still holds. What has changed is the shape of the curve: the jumps are getting smaller, the gap between product classes is getting wider, and the first signs of a ceiling are visible in the suppliers’ own numbers.

This article covers what happened in Q3 2026, what TrendForce and Bernstein expect for Q4 and 2027, what we see in our own pricelist, and what a procurement team should do with that information.

Two sources published Q3 figures in the same week. They agree on direction and differ on magnitude.

Both agree on the cause: AI server demand is absorbing capacity faster than the three DRAM makers can add it. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are moving wafers to HBM and server DDR5, where margins are highest. PC, mobile and consumer SSD get what is left.

The number that matters for context is Q2. TrendForce’s Avril Wu, quoted by Reuters, put the Q2 DRAM contract increase at roughly 60%. Against that, 13–18% in Q3 is a slowdown. It is still a large number for a single quarter.

Samsung reports Q3 guidance this month. Analysts polled by Reuters expect operating profit of 106.1 trillion won (about $79 billion), roughly nine times the 12.17 trillion won of Q3 2025 and the fourth record quarter in a row.

The interesting figure is the one underneath. Samsung’s memory operating margin is forecast at 76%, the same as Q2. Prices went up, but the margin did not. Three things explain that:

For a buyer, the message is this: the largest customers have already fixed their prices. The spot and short-term contract market, where most integrators and resellers buy, is where the increases land in full.

Our own pricelist gives a second view of the same market, one SKU at a time. Here is how list prices moved between 20 July and 5 October, eleven weeks that cover most of Q3 and the first days of Q4. All figures are list prices in USD and change with availability.

Three things stand out. The mainstream server parts, 32GB and 64GB DDR5-6400 RDIMMs, rose 20–45% in eleven weeks, in line with or above the quarterly figures TrendForce reports for the contract market. Small-form-factor and workstation memory (ECC UDIMM, ECC SODIMM) rose even more, because those parts are built on the same die as server memory and get the leftover capacity. And DDR4 is not escaping: the 64GB DDR4-2933 RDIMM that stayed flat for most of the summer jumped 28% in September, exactly the pattern TrendForce describes as leading suppliers cut DDR4 output.

The one soft spot was very high density. The 256GB DDR5-6400 RDIMM peaked at $11,965 in mid-September and fell back to $10,226 by early October, still 4.5% above July. The number of buyers who need 256GB per slot is small, and at this price they are hesitating.

Mainstream TLC drives rose 10–22%, with the brands under the tightest allocation at the top of that range, matching the NAND contract increases. QLC capacity drives lagged, because 2025 inventory is still working through the channel. That gap is closing: the October price updates we received from distribution put Solidigm up 5% across the board, Kioxia up about 5% on selected models and Micron guiding to 15–28% increases through Q4, delivered as several smaller steps rather than one jump.

The top of the capacity range, 22TB to 28TB, rose 8–23% while 16TB to 20TB drives were flat over the same period, as AI cold storage pulls demand to the largest drives. The October distributor updates point the same way: Seagate Exos and SkyHawk high-capacity models up 4–5%, Toshiba up about 5%, WD Purple up 15–20% and WD Ultrastar high-capacity models up 20–30%, and a further Seagate and WD revision was flagged for the first week of October.

Current prices for all of these are on our Pricelist.

TrendForce’s 30 September forecast is the most detailed public view of Q4.

The enterprise SSD line deserves attention. In every other category the rate of increase is slowing. In enterprise SSD it is speeding up, because hyperscalers are building out inference capacity and most of the incremental supply is already sold. If your 2027 plans include large NVMe deployments, Q4 is the time to fix prices.

Nobody in the public data gives a date. The two clearest statements:

Q3 2026 was the quarter the memory cycle changed gear: still rising, but no longer accelerating, except in enterprise SSD. Samsung’s flat 76% margin on a nine-fold profit increase shows where the ceiling is forming: long-term contracts with the largest buyers. Everyone else buys on the market, and the market is still going up.

The practical response is unchanged from February. Secure the mainstream SKUs you need for the next two quarters, treat high-density and DDR4 as separate decisions, and confirm lead time before you commit.